Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Link Post to interesting CBS article regarding 2006 mid-term elections




This article by CBS news' Sean Alfano provides an excellent commentary of how the Democrats won in 2006.

2006 and 2008 Elections enhance Fiorina's argument of "sorting"




Having read the notes I agree that both the 2006 and 2008 elections strengthened Fiorina's argument about sorting. Fiorina defines sorting as : "Those who affiliate with a party today are more likely to affiliate with the ideologically ‘correct’ party than they were in earlier periods".

In 2006, I think this came to light as evidenced by the change in the public's opinion regarding the Iraq war. Poll numbers from 2006 suggest that nearly 60% of Americans thought the invasion in March 2003 was a mistake. In 2003, that number was reversed; 60% thought the invasion was the right thing to do.

This helps reinforce Fiorina's idea of the ideologically "correct" party. I think this is symptomatic of 2006 because, as the sources I have put forth suggest, poll numbers indicate a complete 180 degree 'U-Turn' by the public with regarding the war. Naturally, many believe that the sky-rocketing increase in violence that year was one of the main causes for the drop in support for the war, with more Americans coming home in coffins - the public's support is naturally going to wane... yet the lack of any substantial evidence for going to war in the first place (i.e. no weapons of mass destruction) also played on the public's mind. So, to re-cap, in 2004 - people thought it was the "correct" thing to do. But this opinion 'flip-flopped' in 2006.

In 2008, the economy took center stage as the main issue in the election. According the CNN poll data, 62% of people said that the economy was their main concern. This is sharply contrasted to 2006 where Iraq dominated the agenda. Nonetheless, having the economy to campaign on for the democrats gave Obama a massive advantage because the Democrats had not been in power for 8 years; they could lay the majority of the blame on the hands of the GOP. Also, it did not help the Republican's case that their candidate, John McCain, admitted: "The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should".

So here, it seems as if Fiorina's argument about voters siding with the 'correct' party is here for all to see. The democrats were the 'correct' party in 2006 and 2008 due to two key issues, the Iraq war, and the economy respectively.